Real Madrid v Arsenal Best Odds & Preview

Real Madrid v Arsenal Best Odds & Preview: Gunners Aim to Finish the Job at the Bernabéu

Kick-off: 8pm UK Time, Wednesday 16th April, 2025

Champions League semi-final spot beckons as Arteta’s side look to stun the holders again

It’s do-or-die for Real Madrid on Wednesday evening as they attempt to overturn a significant three-goal deficit in the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final against Arsenal. Trailing 3-0 from the first leg at the Emirates, the Spanish giants return to the Santiago Bernabéu needing a performance of historic proportions to keep their European dream alive.

Arsenal, meanwhile, will travel to Spain full of belief, knowing a place in the semi-finals is within their grasp for the first time since 2009.

Emirates Masterclass Leaves Real Reeling

Last week’s clash in north London produced one of the most impressive performances of Mikel Arteta’s reign. The Gunners dominated from start to finish, slicing through Real Madrid’s experienced side with confidence, energy, and precision.

Two sublime free-kicks from Declan Rice, followed by a well-taken finish from stand-in striker Mikel Merino, handed Arsenal a deserved 3-0 win — a margin that could have been even greater had they been more clinical. The hosts registered 11 shots on target, equalling a Champions League record for a knockout game against Los Blancos.

Madrid’s Rare European Collapse

For a club steeped in continental success, losing a Champions League knockout tie first leg by three or more goals is almost unheard of. This was just the fifth time in Real Madrid’s long history that such a margin has occurred — and on four of those previous occasions, they failed to recover.

The exception? A dramatic 5-1 turnaround against Derby County in the 1975–76 season, after losing the first leg 4-1. So while history offers a glimmer of hope, the challenge before Carlo Ancelotti’s side is steep.

The Bernabéu Factor: Still a Threat

Despite the deficit, Arsenal cannot afford complacency. European nights at the Bernabéu are infamous for delivering drama, as Manchester City and Chelsea can attest in recent years. Real Madrid have only twice beaten English opposition by four or more goals in the Champions League — notably a 4-0 victory over Spurs in 2011.

Madrid also boast an impressive record of scoring in every home Champions League match since 2018, although they’ve conceded in each of their last 10 — a trend that plays into Arsenal’s hands.

Arsenal’s Unbeaten Run Continues

Following their dazzling display against Madrid, Arsenal returned to Premier League action with a 1-1 draw against Brentford, a match that saw several first-team regulars rested. The result, while slightly disappointing, extended their unbeaten run to nine matches in all competitions and confirmed their consistent attacking output — scoring in each of their last eight outings.

Although their Premier League title chances are fading fast, the Gunners remain in strong form heading into the most important European night of their modern era.

Team News: Injuries Influence Both Sides

Real Madrid

Madrid will be without Eduardo Camavinga, suspended after receiving a second yellow card in the first leg for time-wasting. He joins Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal on the sidelines due to long-term injuries, while Ferland Mendy and Andriy Lunin remain major doubts with respective muscle and calf issues.

The good news for Ancelotti is the return of Aurelien Tchouameni from suspension, who is likely to slot into central midfield. Jude Bellingham and Vinícius Júnior, both benched at the weekend, are expected to start and offer a spark in attack.

Arsenal

Arsenal’s only major casualty from the Brentford draw was Jorginho, who suffered a chest injury and will miss the trip to Madrid. Thomas Partey is available despite concerns, as is Ben White, although Jurrien Timber may come into the XI regardless for rotation and tactical reasons.

Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Magalhães, Kai Havertz, and Takehiro Tomiyasu remain sidelined with injury, while Riccardo Calafiori is unlikely to feature due to a lingering knee issue.

Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, Martinelli, and match-winner Merino — who now has four goals against Real Madrid — are all expected to return to the starting line-up.

Mbappé’s Mixed Bag and Madrid’s Forward Threat

Kylian Mbappé is yet to score a direct free-kick in his professional career, a record that will no doubt weigh on him after watching Rice’s stunning set-piece brace last week. The Frenchman’s sending off against Alavés has no bearing on his European availability, but the pressure is mounting on the soon-to-be Galáctico to deliver a moment of magic.

Madrid’s attack remains packed with quality — Bellingham, Vinícius, Rodrygo, and Mbappé are capable of turning a match in an instant — but their fragile defensive record could prove their undoing again.

Gunners Seeking History at the Bernabéu

Arsenal have never lost a competitive match against Real Madrid, and famously won 1-0 at the Bernabéu in 2006 thanks to Thierry Henry’s iconic solo goal. This time, they don’t even need to win — or draw — to go through.

As long as they avoid a collapse, the Gunners will knock out the defending champions in their own backyard, and book just their third ever appearance in the Champions League semi-finals.

Prediction: Real to Win the Night, Arsenal to Win the Tie

Madrid are too experienced, too dangerous, and too proud not to come out swinging at home. A goal or two at the Bernabéu feels inevitable — but Arsenal’s defensive structure and ability to score on the break may prove the difference over two legs.

Arteta’s men should have enough to withstand the early pressure and land a telling blow of their own.

Prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Arsenal (Arsenal advance 4-2 on aggregate) at best odds of 15/2 with Ladbrokes Bookmakers