Next Conservative Leader Odds: Kemi Badenoch huge favourite

The Conservative Party are looking for a new leader

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3 months ago 1097

The Conservatives are in the midst of choosing a new party leader and as such, now is an excellent time to check out all the very best Next Conservative Leader Odds which you can find when registering with any of our featured UK betting sites using the links provided.

Next Conservative Leader Odds: Kemi Badenoch huge favourite

Update: 24.10.24

Kemi Badenoch will take on Robert Jenrick in the final battle to be named leader of the Conservative Party and she is now huge favourite to become leader of the opposition.

Final two

James Cleverly was widely expected to make it through to the final two in the race to be appointed leader of the Conservative Party but despite topping the ballot of MPs in the third round and delivering an excellent speech at the Tory conference, he took only 37 votes in the fourth round, behind Jenrick on 41 and Badenoch on 42.

Huge favourite

The final two contenders will now go head-to-head with Conservative Party members voting in the final round. Badenoch is huge favourite with the leading bookmakers at a best price of just 2/7 while Robert Jenrick is way behind in the betting at a distant 7/2. The result of the vote will be announced on 2nd November.

Strong showing

Badenoch and Jenrick have been perceived as being the two principal contenders since the start of the race. Cleverly may have put in a very strong showing at the Conservative Party conference but this clearly wasn’t enough to convince fellow MPs that he was the right man to take the party forward.

Next Conservative Leader Best Odds

Odds correct as of Thursday, 24th October 2024

2/7 – Kemi Badenoch

7/2 – Robert Jenrick

Update: 09.10.24

…and then there were two…

Cast by the wayside

James Cleverly has been cast by the wayside in the race to become the next leader of the Conservative Party and as such, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick will battle it out in the final round later this month. Conservative MPs held a vote earlier today and the field was reduced to a final two, both of whom will go through to a ballot of Tory members. After collecting 42 votes in the latest count, Badenoch has firmly re-established herself as clear favourite after lagging behind somewhat in recent weeks and as things stand she is odds-on favourite to be appointed as next leader of the Conservative Party at best odds of just 6/11 (lowest price 1/3).

Hot on Badenoch’s heels

Robert Jenrick was hot on Badenoch’s heels however and he picked up just one vote less than his rival while James Cleverly came third with 37 MPs deciding to back him for the party leadership. This latest development comes hot on the heels of former security minister Tom Tugendhat was dumped out of contention after collecting least MP votes on Tuesday.

Membership vote

The Tory membership vote will close on Thursday, 31st October at 5pm and the winner will be formally announced on Saturday, 2nd November.

Next Conservative Leader Best Odds

Odds correct as of Wednesday, 9th October 2024

6/11 – Kemi Badenoch

2/1 – Robert Jenrick

Update: 08.10.24

James Cleverly has emerged as firm odds-on favourite to become the next leader of the Conservative Party.

New favourite

Following the latest round of voting in the race to be named successor to Rishi Sunak, James Cleverly has emerged as new favourite for the Tory leadership after collecting 39 votes from Tory MPs, way ahead of second-placed Robert Jenrick with 30 votes and Kemi Badenoch with 30. Tom Tugendhat fell by the wayside after receiving 20 votes and he has now left the contest.

Scramble for votes

There will now be a scramble for votes between Jenrick and Badenoch – both sitting to the right of the party – in order to ensure they face up to Cleverly in the members’ vote. Indeed, while Cleverly isn’t guaranteed to make it into the final two, the fact that he sits right in the centre of the Tory party means that he likely won’t lose any support to the other two contenders.

Lost support

Indeed, according to the official Conservative website, Jenrick has lost a lot of support while Kemi Badenoch has returned to popularity and enjoys a seven-point lead over her rivals with 32% in the popularity stakes.

Next Conservative Leader Best Odds

Odds correct as of Tuesday, 8th October 2024

5/4 – James Cleverly

2/1 – Kemi Badenoch

4/1 – Robert Jenrick

Update: 02.10.24

There has been significant movement in the betting market for Next Conservative Leader with the odds on James Cleverly being slashed significantly.

Surge in the betting

While Robert Jenrick remains odds-on favourite to succeed Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative Party, James Cleverly has surged in the betting market with the odds on him becoming the next leader clashed from 10/1 to as short as 5/2 over the past few days. This represents one of the biggest shifts in the betting thus far with support for Cleverly soaring in recent days. Indeed, Cleverly has captured a large share of the bets since Monday although he remains some way behind Jenrick in the market.

Lead weakened

Indeed, Jenrick is as low as 1/2 (best odds 8/13) to take charge of the Tory party although his once substantial lead has weakened on the back of his recent comments regarding the SAS. Former market leader Kemi Badenoch has been the big loser in the race this week, her odds drifting significantly from Evens to as high as 6/1 and continuing to slide.

Twists and turns

There will almost certainly be plenty more twists and turns in the betting in the next few days as the party conference draws to a close and the members prepare to cast their votes.

Next Conservative Leader Odds

Odds correct as of Wednesday, 2nd October 2024

8/13 – Robert Jenrick

9/2 – James Cleverly

6/1 – Kemi Badenoch

18/1 – Tom Tugendhat

Update: 17.09.24

The final four in the race to be appointed next Conservative leader will make their pitches at the Tory Conferenc in Birmingham later this month, whereupon MPs will whittle the number down to just two.

Early frontrunner

Kemi Badenoch was the early frontrunner in the race to be elected as next Tory leader, however she has now given way to Robert Jenrick in the betting markets, the former immigration minister as low as 4/6 with some bookmakers (best odds 4/5). Jenrick has been criticised for offering a ‘flavourless brand of centrist Toryism’ and he is very much to the right of the party, especially with regard to immigration.

Extremely popular

Nevertheless, given the current migration issues, this has made him extremely popular with large sections of the party and he went through the second round of voting with five votes more (33) than Kemi Badenoch (28). James Cleverly received 21 votes in the last round of voting, while Tom Tugendhat received the same number. Priti Patel had left the contest after being limited earlier this month.

Party conference

This contest will dominate the party conference which takes place next month and after this draws to a close, Tory MPs will elect the final two contenders. Conservative Party members will then be invited to vote for their preferred candidate and the winner will be announced on November 2nd.

Next Conservative Leader Odds

Odds correct as of 17.09.24

4/5 – Robert Jenrick

9/4 – Kemi Badenoch

8/1 – James Cleverly

14/1 – Tom Tugendhat

Update: 10.09.24

No-nonsense former immigration minister Robert Jenrick has emerged as frontrunner to succeed Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative Party.

Likeliest winner

The latest odds for Next Conservative Leader betting market suggests that the likeliest winner is Robert Jenrick and the latest to fall was Mel Stride this afternoon. Having topped the second poll of Tory MPs a this afternoon with 33 votes, Jenrick is now a best price of 11/10 to take over from Rishi Sunak. In contrast, Stride received only 16 votes and is now out of the running.

Biggest mover

Shadow Secretary of State for Housing, Kemi Badenoch, received 28 votes in the latest poll of MPs this afternoon and she remains second favourite in the leadership contest at best odds of 13/8, having been 6/4 before the initial round of voting. The biggest mover in the market has been James Cleverly who received 21 votes both last week and this afternoon and who was fourth favourite before the latest poll. Cleverly is a lowest price of 8/1 (best odds 9/2) in the race to become next Tory leader, while Tom Tugendhat (also with 21 votes this afternoon) is next in the market at a best price of 11/1, having been as low as 4/1 only last week.

Next Conservative Leader Odds

Odds correct as of 10.09.24

11/10 – Robert Jenrick

13/8 – Kemi Badenoch

8/1 – James Cleverly

11/1 – Tom Tugendhat

05.09.24

Out on top

Robert Jenrick came out on top in the first round of voting as the Conservative Party decide who their new leader should be. Priti Patel was limited in this initial round while former immigration minister Robert Jenrick received a total of 28 votes, pushing former favourite Kemi Badenoch to second place, the latter taking 22 votes. Other contenders still in contention include former game secretary James Cleverly, ex security minister Tom Tugendhat and Mel Stride. In the coming days the contenders for the position will be narrowed down to four.

Most likely winner

According to the leading bookmakers, Jenrick is deemed the most likely winner after coming out on top in the first round of voting, most firms going 5/4 that he emerges victories and takes his place as leader of the opposition. Former favourite Badenoch is next in the betting at a best price of 2/1 while James Cleverly is the only other contender priced at single figures at 5/1.

Next Conservative Leader Odds

5/4 – Robert Jenrick

2/1 – Kemi Badenoch

5/1 – James Cleverly

16/1 – Tom Tugendhat

50/1 – Mel Stride

Update: 05.08.24

The Conservative leader nominations have now opened as the party takes the first steps towards appointing a replacement for former PM Rishi Sunak.

Robert Jenrick has emerged as a leading contender in the race to become Conservative party leader.

Robert Jenrick has become the principal contender of the Conservative right with some hardline policies which have been designed to challenge those of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, including a resurrection of the Rwanda plan. The former home office minister is supported by other major Tory right figures such as Esther McVey and Sir John Hayes.

The Newark MP launched his pitch in his home constituency of Newark and his rightwing policies have helped set him apart from his main rivals. Thus far, the main challengers for the position of Conservative party leader are Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Mel Stride, James Cleverley, Tom Tugendhat and Jenrick.

At the time of writing, Badenoch is favourite to be appointed as next Tory leader at a best price of 5/2, while Jenrick is close behind in the betting at best odds of 7/2 (lowest price 5/4). Tom Tugendhat is next at 5/1 while James Cleverley is a 7/1 shot for the post.

Next Conservative Leader Odds

5/2 – Kemi Badenoch

7/2 – Robert Jenrick

5/1 – Tom Tugendhat

7/1 – James Cleverley

30.07.24

Nominations

Nominations for a new Conservative Party leader opened last week (July 23rd) with all potential candidates needing the support of no less than 10 MPs in order to go through to the initial round of voting. The first pool of candidates will reduce in number to just four after this initial stage and they will subsequently present their case at the Conservative Conference in September.

Online Ballot

Tory MPs will then narrow this field to just two candidates and at this point the final decision will be in the hands of party members who will vote via an online ballot. The new party leader – who will replace outgoing Rishi Sunak – will be formally announced on 2nd November, 2024.

Frontrunner

Current Shadow Housing Secretary, Kemi Badenoch, is the frontrunner to be appointed as next Conservative leader at a best price of 15/8 (lowest odds 8/5). Following the resignation of Boris Johnson two years ago, Badenoch made it as far as the fourth round of voting in the Tory leader ship contest. She has won a great deal of respect and attention within the party for her approach to such issues as identity politics, equality and women’s rights.

Closest Rival

At the time of writing, Badenoch’s closest rival in the race to be appointed as Next Conservative Party Leader is Robert Jenrick, the former Immigration Minister a best price of 7/2 to become Sunak’s successor. Jenrick resigned last year in protest at the government’s Rwanda deportation scheme.