Inter Milan v Bayern Munich Best Odds & Match Preview

Inter Milan v Bayern Munich Best Odds & Match Preview

Kick-off: 8pm UK Time, Wednesday 16th April, 2025

San Siro awaits as Inter edge closer to another European semi-final

The Champions League returns to San Siro on Wednesday night, where Inter Milan host Bayern Munich in the second leg of their quarter-final tie. Holding a 2-1 advantage from the first leg in Bavaria, Inter are within touching distance of a place in the last four of Europe’s elite competition for the second time in three seasons.

After a dramatic finish at the Allianz Arena, in which substitute Davide Frattesi struck late to restore Inter’s lead, the Serie A giants will aim to finish the job on home soil.

Frattesi’s Late Strike Gives Inter the Edge

Last Tuesday’s first leg was a game of two counter-attacks. Inter opened the scoring with a blistering breakaway — one of the finest team moves seen in the Champions League this season — only to be pegged back by the ever-reliable Thomas Müller.

Just when it seemed Bayern might go on to win the game, Inter struck with a second counter in the 88th minute, snatching a vital away win. Simone Inzaghi’s side showed both resilience and cutting edge, and now return to Milan with momentum firmly on their side.

History Beckons for Inzaghi’s Side

Inter are now on a five-match winning streak in the Champions League, something they last achieved during their treble-winning 2009–10 campaign under José Mourinho. Their victory in Germany was also their 12th match unbeaten across all competitions, including a routine 3-1 win over Cagliari at the weekend.

San Siro has become a fortress in Europe, with the Nerazzurri unbeaten in 14 home Champions League fixtures — currently the longest ongoing run in the competition.

A win or draw would secure Inter’s progress to a likely semi-final against Barcelona, a potential repeat of the 2010 semi-final that saw Inter famously prevail en route to European glory.

Inter’s European Track Record Favourable

Inter have progressed from 21 of their previous 23 European ties when winning the first leg. However, caution remains: one of the two exceptions came last season, when they squandered a promising position against Atletico Madrid in the round of 16.

Even so, Inzaghi’s men have developed a reputation for defensive solidity and game management — qualities that could prove decisive again on Wednesday.

Bayern’s Uphill Battle

For Bayern Munich, the situation is precarious. The loss in the first leg marked their first home European defeat in four years, with their most recent coming at the hands of Paris Saint-Germain in 2020. They now face the daunting task of overturning a deficit away from home — a scenario that has troubled them in recent years.

Bayern have only progressed from one of their last eight Champions League ties after losing the first leg. That solitary success came last season against Lazio, another Italian opponent, but this Inter side poses a much sterner test.

Oddly, a Perfect Record at San Siro

Despite the circumstances, Bayern can take confidence from an unusual statistic: they have won all four of their previous away matches against Inter, three of which came in the Champions League — and all without conceding a goal.

Whether they can maintain that perfect record on this occasion remains to be seen, especially given their patchy form and growing injury list.

Team News: Injuries Force Rotation

Inter Milan

Inzaghi gave key players a rest at the weekend, including Marcus Thuram, Alessandro Bastoni, and Henrikh Mkhitaryan, all of whom are expected to return to the starting XI for this high-stakes clash.

• Mehdi Taremi made his return from injury with a place on the bench against Cagliari, but is unlikely to start.
• Kristjan Asllani is available again after suspension, although he is also expected to remain among the substitutes.
• Piotr Zielinski and Denzel Dumfries remain sidelined.
• On the left flank, Federico Dimarco is fit again, but Carlos Augusto’s form may keep him in the side.

Predicted Inter XI:
Sommer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Martinez, Thuram

Bayern Munich

New boss Vincent Kompany has a selection headache, with several key absentees for the trip to Italy.

• Jamal Musiala is out for the remainder of the season, so Raphael Guerreiro could continue in an advanced role after his impact from the bench in the first leg.
• Thomas Müller, despite scoring last week, may once again be used as a second-half option.
• Jonas Urbig will remain between the sticks, with Manuel Neuer not expected back until the end of the month.
• Defensive injuries to Alphonso Davies, Dayot Upamecano, and Hiroki Ito further complicate matters.
• In attack, Serge Gnabry’s goal against Dortmund has put pressure on Leroy Sané, but the latter is likely to start, with Kingsley Coman another option.

Predicted Bayern XI:
Urbig; Laimer, Dier, Kim, Stanisic; Kimmich, Goretzka; Olise, Guerreiro, Sané; Kane

Bayern Lose Ground Domestically

Domestically, Bayern were fortunate over the weekend. Bayer Leverkusen’s draw kept the Bundesliga title race alive, after Bayern themselves were held to a 2-2 draw by Borussia Dortmund in Der Klassiker. With just five games left, their six-point advantage is valuable, but not definitive.

Can Kompany Pull Off a Masterstroke?

Kompany’s tenure has started with mixed results, and failure to progress to the Champions League semi-finals would ramp up the pressure. Bayern are not only battling a resilient Inter outfit but also a weight of historical underperformance in recent European knockout ties.

Inter, in contrast, are playing with belief, balance, and a clear identity — making them justifiably favourites to advance.

Prediction: Inter to Edge into the Last Four

Bayern’s excellent away record at San Siro cannot be ignored, but this Inter side are well-drilled, disciplined, and riding the wave of momentum. They’ve become experts at managing tight European fixtures, and unless Bayern can produce something exceptional, the hosts are likely to book their semi-final ticket.

Prediction: Inter Milan 1-1 Bayern Munich at best odds of 13/2 with Boylesports
Inter progress 3-2 on aggregate