League One Relegation Betting Odds: Who will drop down to fourth tier?

Carlisle United are big favourites for relegation this season

The 2023/24 League One campaign is fast approaching the end and several sides are struggling at the bottom end of the division, therefore now is an excellent time to register with our featured UK bookmakers where you can find the very best League One odds and free bet offers.

 

League One Betting Odds: Carlisle United big favourites for the drop

 

Carlisle United gained promotion to League One after beating Stockport County in the League Two play-off final last season, however it’s almost certain that the Cumbrians will drop straight back down to the fourth tier in 2023/24.

 

Update: 04.04.24

With just five league games left to play, bottom League One side Carlisle United are thirteen points away from safety and the chances of them saving their third-tier status is now effectively nil. The Cumbrians have suffered a disastrous campaign with wins in just 6 of their 41 league games and 26 defeats during that time, while they have leaked more goals (73) than any other side in the division.

The Cumbrians managed a surprise victory over promotion-chasing Peterborough United on Good Friday but this was followed by an all-too-familiar defeat at home to Lincoln City on Monday. The Cumbrians’ appearance in League One will soon (likely) come to an end after just a single season in the third tier and their play-off final appearance at Wembley now seems like a distant memory.

Near-certainties

While Carlisle are  now effectively certain for the drop (many bookmakers closing the book on Paul Simpson’s men in the relegation market), Fleetwood Town are deemed the side most likely to drop down with them at a best price of 1/66, while Port Vale, Burton Albion and Cheltenham Town are the only other sides at odds-on (1/2, 8/13 and 10/11 respectively).

 

League One Relegation Odds

 

1/66 –  Fleetwood Town

1/2  –  Port Vale

8/13 –  Burton Albion

10/11 – Cheltenham Town

 


 

Update: 14.03.24

The 2023/24 season has been one to forget for Carlisle United fans and with just nine league games of the campaign left to play, the Cumbrians now realise that relegation to the fourth tier is almost certain.

 

Final nail

Carlisle United are not mathematically certain to drop down into League Two at the end of the season but even the most optimistic supporters will realise that the season is effectively over and that any hopes of a great escape are now dead and buried. With just nine league games left to play, Carlisle are a massive 16 points adrift of safety and the 3-2 defeat at home to Barnsley on Tuesday evening was surely the final nail in the coffin as far as their League One status is concerned.

 

Lowest league crowd

On a wet and windy evening, Brunton Park saw its lowest league crowd of the season with around 5,500 hardy souls witnessing what was in fairness one of the better Carlisle performances of the season.

 

League One Relegation Odds

 

1/5  –  Fleetwood Town

2/5  –  Port Vale

4/5  –  Cheltenham Town

9/4  –  Burton Albion

5/2  –  Reading

10/3 –  Cambridge United

 


 

Update: 27.02.24

With yet another defeat under their belts, it seems inconceivable that Carlisle United will haul themselves to safety in League One between now and the end of what has thus far been a disastrous campaign for Paul Simpson’s men.

 

Eighth straight defeat

Despite taking the lead against Bristol Rovers at the Memorial Stadium last weekend, Carlisle United fell to an eighth straight defeat and they sit marooned at the foot of the League One table ahead of their trip to Burton Albion tonight (Tuesday, 27th February). The Cumbrians are now a massive fourteen points away from safety with just thirteen games left to play and the chances of them remaining in the third tier at the end of the season seem almost non existent.

 

Frailties in defence

Paul Simpson’s men have managed just four wins from their 33 league matches while they have lost more games (21) than any other side in the third tier this season. They have managed to find the back of the net in all-but-two of their last nine outings but frailties in defence and an apparent lack of ideas has been costly to the side and their locally-born and generally popular manager is coming under fire on the back of some hugely disappointing performances.

 

Huge favourites for the drop

As things stand, the bookies give the Cumbrians almost no chance of saving their skins in the third tier, some firms going as low as 1/1000 that they find themselves back in League Two at the first attempt (best odds 1/100), while second in the betting are Fleetwood Town at a distant 1/16 best price. Port Vale are third in the market for relegation at a best price of 8/11 while Shrewsbury Town complete the top four in the betting at 9/4.

 

League One Relegation Odds

1/100 – Carlisle United

1/16 –  Fleetwood Town

8/11 –  Port Vale

9/4  –  Shrewsbury Town

5/2  –  Cheltenham Town

3/1  –  Reading

3/1  –  Charlton Athletic

9/2  –  Cambridge United

 


 

Update: 20.02.24

Carlisle United’s meeting with Cambridge United at the weekend was a game which the Cumbrians really couldn’t afford to lose, however Paul Simpson’s men found themselves on the receiving end of a 4-0 hammering and it’s hard to envisage many positive results coming their way between now and the end of the season.

Carlisle United’s chances of escaping relegation to League Two are looking almost non existent on the back of some truly dreadful performances. The weekend 4-0 defeat to Cambridge United was the latest in a string of substandard showings for Paul Simpson’s men and questions are being asked about the suitability of a manager who nevertheless played a massive part in steering the Cumbrians away from relegation to the National League and ultimately into the third tier.

Not since the 2-1 win over Port Vale on 1st January 2024 have Carlisle managed to collect a single point, Simpson’s men subsequently embarking upon a seven-game losing run. The Cumbrians have found the back of the net in six of their last eight outings but they have frailties in all areas and are increasingly looking very much out of their depth.

All of the evidence suggests that Carlisle will fail to turn things around between now and the end of the season and the likelihood is that they will find themselves back in League Two after just a single season in the third tier. Thus far, the Cumbrians have only managed four wins from their 32 league outings, while two of the sides immediately above them in the table enjoy at least one game-in-hand over Simpson’s men.

At the time of writing, Carlisle United are a best price of 1/50 to be relegated straight back into League Two at the first time of asking while Fleetwood Town are next in the betting at best odds of 1/20.

All odds correct at time of writing (20.02.24)

 

League One Relegation Odds

 

1/50 –  Carlisle United

1/20 –  Fleetwood Town

7/5  –  Port Vale

6/4  –  Shrewsbury Town

9/4  –  Cheltenham Town

9/4  – Reading

4/1  –  Burton Albion

 


 

Update: 15.02.24

Carlisle United are looking very much out of their depth in League One this season and their winless run continued when they lost to league leaders Portsmouth at Brunton Park on Saturday afternoon.

Carlisle’s midweek meeting with Burton Albion at the Pirelli Stadium was cancelled at the eleventh hour but with relegation rivals Cheltenham Town beating Blackpool 2-0 and Fleetwood Town drawing 1-1 with fellow strugglers Reading, Simpson’s side are now six points adrift at the foot of the division, while they are eleven points away from safety with just fifteen League One games left to play.

The Cumbrians fell to their sixth successive defeat in their last outing on Saturday afternoon when they lost to the only goal of the game against League One high-fliers Portsmouth. Simpson’s men looked a much improved outfit in the first half but Pompey made the game their own after the break and didn’t need to find top gear on their way to the three points.

Understandably, manager Paul Simpson is receiving a fair amount of criticism and player selection has been questioned on occasion. Indeed, while Simpson saved the side from relegation to the National League upon his arrival two seasons ago, there has been a growing section of support asking him to be dismissed from his position. The question is, could the club find a suitable replacement who could turn things around?

As things stand, Carlisle are big favourites to make the drop down to League Two at the end of the season at a best price of 1/50 (lowest odds 1/100), while Fleetwood Town are best odds of 1/7 and Cheltenham Town are 11/10.

All odds correct at time of writing (15.02.24)

 

League One Relegation Odds

 

1/33 –  Carlisle United

1/7  –  Fleetwood Town

11/10 – Cheltenham Town

2/1  – Reading

9/4  –  Shrewsbury Town

5/2  –  Burton Albion

 


 

Update: 06.02.24

Carlisle United’s losing run continued on Saturday afternoon when they lost 3-2 to promotion-hopefuls Leyton Orient at Brisbane Road and it seems likely that they will find themselves back in League Two after just a single season in the third tier.  Paul Simpson’s men have collected just 20 points from 30 league outings so far this term and they are a full ten points away from safety, having played at least one game more than the sides immediately above them in the League One table.

The Cumbrians have now gone 450 minutes of football without managing a single point and while they have found the back of the net in each of their last six outings, they have failed to score twice in a single game since 1st January when they recorded their last win, against Port Vale at Brunton Park.

The bookmakers make Carlisle big favourites for the drop this season at a general price of 1/25 (best odds 1/14) and while there’s still much of the season left to play, it’s looking increasingly likely that the Brunton Park regulars will be watching League Two football in 2024/25.

 

League One Relegation Odds

 

1/14 –  Carlisle United

1/9  –  Fleetwood Town

8/15 – Cheltenham Town

4/5  – Reading

2/1  –  Burton Albion

10/3 –  Exeter City

 


 

Update: 17.01.24

It was yet more disappointment for travelling Carlisle United fans on Tuesday evening when they returned home from Barnsley with nothing to show for their troubles. Despite taking the lead through January signing Luke Armstrong in the seventh minute of the match, numerous other chances for the Cumbrians were wasted and Barnsley punished the visitors for their wasted opportunities by levelling the scoreline in the 58th minute and claiming the winner from the penalty spot with just a few minutes left on the clock.

This was a harsh result for a Carlisle side which had dominated for lengthy periods and it leaves them floundering in the drop zone having played three games more than the two sides immediately above them in the League One table. Indeed, the Cumbrians currently sit second from bottom in the division with only Fleetwood below them, the latter two points adrift of Paul Simpson’s men but with two games in hand.

Carlisle are in action against third-bottom side Cheltenham Town on Saturday afternoon and victory here is an absolute must for Simpson’s side. Nevertheless, with only four wins to show for their 28 league outings this season, Carlisle are looking increasingly doomed to a swift relegation straight back to League Two at the first time of asking, the leading UK bookmakers now going as low as 1/9 (best odds 1/6) that their stay in the third tier is restricted to a single campaign.

 

League One Relegation Odds

 

1/6  –  Carlisle United

2/9  –  Fleetwood Town

Evens – Cheltenham Town

11/10 – Reading

11/8 –  Exeter City

 


 

09.01.24

It was a long journey home for travelling Carlisle United fans on Saturday afternoon after their side had lost 2-1 at Exeter City, this disappointing result being the Cumbrians’ 14th league defeat of the season. Since winning promotion to League One at the end of last season via the play-offs, Paul Simpson’s men have managed just four wins whilst in league action and there seems every possibility that their stay in the third tier will be a particularly brief one.

As things stand, the Cumbrians sit second from bottom in the League One table, having played one game more than the sides immediately surrounding them in the lower echelons of the division. Just two points separate Carlisle from bottom side Fleetwood Town while they are three points behind third-from-bottom side Cheltenham Town.

Carlisle’s new American owners will be splashing the cash this month and this should be to the benefit of the team, however a corner needs to be turned now, otherwise the Cumbrians may find themselves cast adrift at the foot of the table.

At the time of writing, the bookmakers are very much of the opinion that Simpson’s men will drop out of the division at the end of 2023/24, most firms going 1/5 that this proves to be the case. Second in the betting are current bottom side Fleetwood Town at 4/11 while Cheltenham Town are a 10/11 shot for relegation this term.

 

League One Relegation Odds

 

1/5  –  Carlisle United

4/11 –  Fleetwood Town

10/11 – Cheltenham Town

7/5  –  Exeter City